Playing by usd/jpy notes

In the second post of mine about loonie's marathon I described potential finish line based on the technical concept of measured objective. I am sure someone who is reading this blog took the advantage of shorting the pair and made 160 pips. What a deal! But I am a very modest and quiet trader and do not like noise. So, let's be quiet and work methodically on our next ambush (a.k.a. a lofty word "setup") using measured objective. Our next victim is usd/jpy. Yes, yes, I know - too choppy and looks messy for the last week or two. But did you know that there is still a harmony, a kind of music that we can hear if we are attentive enough? Let's look at this chart showing the current price of dollar vs. yen. Alright, I drew 3 lines - A, B and C - which are created by the low of 3 most recent pinbars. I am sure you can see from where they all bounced off - you guessed it right, inside bottom! So, I was short this pair yesterday and exited this morning as there was no aggressive continuation. I did this anticipating the break of line B. It did not happen, so I am out. But what is next? I am neither short, nor long. Because I am waiting for this pattern of successive steps up to be broken to the downside. ABC is like a tune which is performed in front of the whole world perfectly. This harmony of measured objective may mesmerize us - which is the whole premise of the market, bewilder us, force us to lose. So, I am simply waiting for the bear to snap these strings thus invalidating the ABC pattern (I am not talking about zig-zags, I am talking about my chart). 3 times same step is a turning point. Please, wait.

Counting the beans

Alright, folks. Let's count our profits from all 4 positions which I posted last week:

1). Cable long - now trading at 1.9850. Up 75 pips. Not bad. The high today was 1.9897 - really good.
2). Loonie - now trading at 1.0720. Up 160 pips. Wow! Did you take the trade? Too bad if not;
3). Swissie - now trading at 1.2207. Up 80 pips. Excellent!
4). Eurodollar - now trading at 1.3504. Up 52 pips. The worst performer if I may say so about the winning trade.

Here is the bottom-line: 367 pips for 1 week, eh? All the 4 setups were published as a free stuff, by a free-lance blogger.

time travel between patterns

Apparently, the Swiss banks are buying their national currency and I am with them. Has it hit the bottom? Probably. And I am taking a chance. Along with usd/chf opened a new short eur/chf.

Today I wanted to share with you some comparison between 2 cross dollar pairs - aud and eur. The first as it is developing today and the second as it has been played recently. All charts are 4HR timeframes from Metatrader.


















So, on Chart 1 do you see the perfect round top which suggests a bearish mood? Probably. Do you see where the support is currently clinging to? Is it desperate for longs? We'll find out soon. But let's look at the very recent price action in aud/usd pair. Interesting, isn't it? You will be more suprised to find that the distance between the swing high and swing low (where the red bar is) is almost the same on both charts - around 200 pips.

swissie's needle

Took a swissie short from 1.2310 based on the inside top pattern. Price was not sharp enough to pierce easily through the previous top on March 9-11, 2007. Target can be 21EMA which is about 1.2265. However, since this is a Moving average it may need manual adjustment based on where the price is moving to - this is the problem of moving averages. The tail can't wag the dog.

Loonie's second time high

I was wondering what if my dad would have sold loonie 30 years ago without a stop-loss and let it just float freely. Hoping it would bounce anytime soon. You guessed it - he could make break-even yesterday.

On many platforms I can not even get 30 years history on a monthly chart. This is an abyss and there is nothing to compare with as a potential bottom. Alright, I will use something else then.

From point A as a recent weekly high to point B which is break of a trendline (or, channel) there are 614 pips (4 pips shy of a perfect fib number). The week ended at 1.0893. Measured objective for the next stop is around point C at 1.0647. Did you know that as far back as 1647 A.D. everything in then Canada was valued by the standard beaver skins? I count this pair pips in oil drops today.

Welcome to my first post

Hello, you have reached the virtual home of a trader who enjoys trading forex for many years. I am not a full-time trader and want to put it straight - no one owns the market, so I never intended to spend my entire life on watching live charts. I value better things in life and I enter the market only when there is enough value for me. Maybe, this is why I more of a by-stander in the market and it works for me. I mean financially as well. O.k., enough for self promotion. Probably, you've come from the place where I've been a recent contributor - a public thread about MACD trading style on www.forexfactory.com. I am not affiliated with Forex Factory but I've met many good friends there. I do not teach anyone and I take sole responsibility for my trades. One of the core patterns that I trade is called "Inside Top" or reverse pattern "Inside Bottom". Due to their striking similarity with beautifully painted nesting dolls I call the pattern jokingly "Nesting Dolls". I will try sometime later to provide a backgrounder - most probably will just cut and paste what I posted on FF six months ago. We have a long weekend coming in Canada and I need to wrap up my first publishing fit.

I attach my first trade on this blog. I have no idea if I am going to win but you can easily see why I am long cable. The chart is Metatrader Daily. Good luck and have a great weekend, folks. Forex does not deserve your years. Trade less, trade for fun.