Musings on Sunday

I did not open any new positions with usd/jpy. I watched it closely for shorting exercise but the market did not give me such opportunity, I decided to stay away. Longs must be still happy as the price broke psychological level 122.00 and is flirting with with shorts and longs at this time.

I have my eyes on eur/usd which is a popular pair but probably the most difficult to trade. This is the daily chart. It is very tempting to go long based on the following chart information:

1). Last day's price action formed a doji, a star in a circle C.
2). Last day low nearly touched the previous inside bottom in circle B - I marked it green because, in my strategy, it usually serves as a support.
3). The redbar also goes up to the high on December 4th, 2006. This is point A.

Sorry to take you backwards but I usually start to mark from historical formations up yo a current level.

Now, given all this nice price presentation, it looks very tempting to go long, doesn't it? In all fairness (if the market understands it), this is a good set-up. But something bothers me and tells me to wait. Really, these are just my premonitions and maybe I am overcautious. I'll tell you what.

I got used to set-ups where the price should touch the previous inside or even cheeky enough to slightly pierce the inside pattern and then quickly retrace. Here my bar stands at 1.3383 and the low was 1.3391. Come on, you can say, 7 pips variance! And this is what bothers me. The low has not completely reached the measured target, or missed by 7 pips. I do not know if I prove to be wrong to be on the sidelines and miss a profitable trade but here I am, sometimes aggressive, sometimes quiet. All right, female logic it is. Do not complain, please. It is me.

I'll wait to see if doji welcomes more bulls.